BY KURT HANSON
This is going to be a critical year for Internet radio, as it will soon become evident that there are technological, cultural, and sociological changes occurring that are going to have a major impact on how consumers will access and use radio in the future.

This week in RAIN, we're going to feature a five-part series that draws from a speech, "The Future of Radio," that I've been delivering at radio conferences around the world lately, including Copenhagen, Toronto (pictured at right), and in Asia soon (but not yet in the US).

Before the week is over, we'll take a look at how, in the very near future, tens of millions of consumers in the US and Canada, and many tens of millions more around the the world, are going to find it more convenient to listen to radio delivered via the Internet than via AM or FM or satellite... and the dangers and opportunities that will present to broadcasters, entrepreneurs, and advertisers.

In the US, my views get no respect.
Here's the reason why
The reason all my recent speaking gigs have been in foreign countries is, I believe, due to the fact that my views are making me a pariah here. (So I have to go to more open-minded countries to get a booking.)

Here in America, the general point of view, particularly within large broadcast groups, is that "Internet radio is over." And I think the reason for that attitude can be traced back to the series of three excellent "Radio Ink Internet Conferences" that Eric Rhoads organized in 1999 and 2000 in San Jose and Boston (pictured at left).

At those conferences, a series of experts came on stage and prophesied that AM and FM radio would be dead in just a few short years.

"In three years, your broadcast signal will be nothing more than a promotional vehicle for your webcast," was the general tone of the speakers on stage.

Well, three years have now passed, and of course those predictions have not come true. The experts who had been on stage blew through a couple hundred million dollars of venture capital, and both they and their firms are largely gone.

So the easy conclusion is: "Those guys were wrong. Internet radio didn't happen. It's over."


"First Law of Technology" explains all
Both the phenomenon of what was going on in 1999-2000 and the phenomenon of what is going on now in 2003 can be explained by a rule coined by Roy Amara (but often misattributed to Paul Saffo) of the Institute for the Future. That rule is now called the "First Law of Technology." It says:

That's what I believe was going on then, and what I believe is also what's happening now.

In 1999 and 2000, experts were overestimating the short-term impact of Internet radio. That's why Clear Channel spent $20 million on Enigma Digital (only to essentially shut it down just a few months later). That's why venture capitalists threw tens of millions of dollars at RadioWave, NetRadio, eYada, and many other ventures. That's why five smart broadcasters threw millions of dollars into their LMiV project.

Now, however, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. Everyone is assuming "It's over." In reality, however, a tsunami of change is clearly evident on the horizon — but, as the First Law of Technology predicts, it is being ignored by almost everyone.

Tomorrow: Winds of change
Tomorrow in RAIN, we'll take a look at some statistics on the current growth rate of Internet radio and at a new technology that I believe is going to cause that rate of growth to veer sharply upwards in the near future.

Then, later this week, we'll look at a thesis by a best-selling author and Harvard professor. It states that there is a certain type of technological change that leads to a situation in which virtually all of the leading firms in a given industry are wiped out because, ironically, they follow traditionally smart business practices. It's possible that Internet-delivered radio is a perfect example of that exact type of technological change.

TO BE CONTINUED...

Part 2 of "The Future of Radio" series is here.

The US debut of Kurt's "The Future of Radio" speech (in a slightly-condensed preview version) will take place next week in Las Vegas, immediately preceding the RAIN Reader Cocktail Party at Gordon Biersch Brewery Restaurant (Tuesday, April 7th, at 5:15PM). To reserve a seat for the presentation, call 1-312-527-3879 or write kurt@kurthanson.com.

If you're planning to attend NAB 2003 in Las Vegas (April 5-10; details here), we hope you'll join us for our RAIN reader get-togther. We've reserved the patio of the Gordon Biersch Brewery Restaurant (about a $4 cab ride from the Convention Center) on Tuesday, April 8th. This year, we've also reserved a private room for the U.S. debut of Kurt's "The Future of Radio" speech for those who'd like an advance look at it. (Presentation at 5:15pm, cocktails at 5:45pm.) See you there!

BY PAUL MALONEY
No, Infinity has not relented.

The nation's second most-listened to radio network will not begin streaming its programming on the Internet, as had been an industry rumor.

For the past week or so, several Infinity-owned major market stations (such as WBBM-AM/Chicago) have been airing promotional announcements that indicate the station will soon be "powered by AOL Broadband," the Internet company's new high-speed service. This apparently led many observers to believe that Infinity, a company that has conspicuously never allowed its properties to stream on the Internet, had had a change of heart.

However, several sources today are reporting that this is not the case. Infinity will apparently soon announce a $30 million advertising deal with American Online, who will provide the high-speed service at the stations for use in the studios.